Recruiting obviously makes all the difference in this day and age in college basketball, but the Big Ten has proved to be a conference where experience matters. So let's take a look at what the breakdown of the Big Ten next season should be.
1. Michigan State
There is nothing that should make you think that Michigan State won't be at the top again, or at least challenging for another Big Ten title. They are bringing back stars like Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious. Draymond Green and Chris Allen are also expected to be back as well. Combine all of that experience with Tom Izzo and the Spartans should be at the top of the conference again, but that's not saying they won't have challengers.
2. Illinois
This could be a risky pick at this time. We don't yet know for sure if Demetri McCamey is going to enter the NBA draft. There have been some reports that he will test the waters without signing with an agent (very similar to Evan Turner). If McCamey goes the Illini could drop all the way to number six. They still return a solid core, but without their trigger-man, the Illini could be in serious trouble. Bruce Weber is bringing in a solid recruiting class, but whether or not they can jump right in remains to be seen.
3. Purdue
Robbie Hummel is the main reason for dropping Purdue all the way down to three. There are still a great deal we don't know about the injury to his knee. Injuries to the ACL can sometimes take years to recover fully from, and at times can take away from a players ability. Purdue will still be a better team with Hummel on the floor, but look for Hummel to be the indicator of how the Boilermakers perform on the court. Off the court a player like Chris Kramer is hard to replace; it will be interesting to see who steps up into the leader role, and the defensive role that Kramer has occupied the last couple of seasons.
4. Wisconsin
Losing players like Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon is going to be a big problem for the Badgers. But look for players like Rob Wilson and Ryan Evans to step in and fill the void next season. The plus for Wisconsin is the return of players like Jordan Taylor, Keaton Nankavil, and John Leuer. With three experienced players on the floor the transition for Wilson and Evans into a more prominent role should be smoother, and perhaps keep Wisconsin's tournament streak alive, and once again in the hunt for a Big Ten title. If McCamey decides to officially leave Illinois; look for Wisconsin to bump up to third or even take second, and compete with Michigan State for the title.
5. Ohio State
A big fall for the Buckeyes but they are suffering the biggest loss of any team in the conference this season. Evan Turner is definitely gone. Even though he is not signing with an agent right off the bat, Turner will most likely be playing in the NBA next season after being a lottery pick. Ohio State will be returning a lot of solid players, but as we saw when Turner was injured this season...the Buckeyes are a different team without him.
6. Minnesota
The Gophers are really the wild-card for next season. This past season they looked to be very good at times, and mediocre at others. They do lose prominent players of the past like Westbrook and Johnson, but they retain a solid group. If the Gophers can play like they did at the end of last season they could be a threat, but inconsistent play has been the tendency in the twin cities...so that's what we'll count on in 2010-2011.
7. Northwestern
Again a team that has plenty of upside, but is yet to show it on the big stage. The Wildcats missed out on the tournament again, but also played the entire season without their best player Kevin Coble, who is expected to be back next season after a medical red-shirt. Northwestern also returns Juice Thompson, John Shurna, and Drew Crawford for next season. The Wildcats could also be a team that scares some people next season. Don't be too surprised if they find their way up towards the top four and even the top two with the talent and experience they have returning next season.
8. Penn State
A team that at times couldn't buy a win this past season. Don't let the record fool you; Penn State is a good basketball team, and will challenge next season in the Big Ten. A team that at times took it's licks in conference last season, but it is all experience the Nittany Lions can use for next season as they are the only team in the conference that loses no one from last years team. Yes you heard that right...they lose nobody. Even Talor Battle will be back next season making Penn State a team to watch in 2010-2011.
9. Indiana
Yes I know everybody beat up on the Hoosiers last season, but they do have a lot returning; and a lot more than the teams below them have to work with. The talent may not be there for the most part right now but they also retain a lot of players coming into next season. With last season as a learning experience for the Hoosiers, I would expect them to be a little more competitive in 2010-2011.
10. Michigan
A team that had high hopes coming into this season, and now is left reeling. With the losses DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris look for the Wolverines to struggle next season. They do have a solid recruiting class coming in but the experience and scoring is not there. They lack a solid point guard, and need to rebuild the program with the recruits they have coming in. It could be a long time until we see Michigan back at the top in Big Ten basketball, and John Beilien may not survive.
11. Iowa
Last but not least is the Hawkeyes. A coaching change is perhaps the least of their problems. At times Cully Payne looked like the talent that he is, and at times like someone trying to do to much. They also lack talent in many areas on the court...especially down low. Size is one thing that Fran McCaffery can't teach, and it's one thing that will hurt the Hawkeyes in a conference that has plenty of it. This is a rebuilding year at Iowa, and I expect that it will take McCaffery a couple years to get the program back on track.
Keep in mind that there are many variables in predicting the outcomes of next season. Injuries are a big one, and not just the ones that we know about now. Hummel and Lucas will be back next season, but how much did they lose from significant injuries. Another key variable is McCamey. Remember if he leaves, get ready to watch the Illini drop off a cliff and fine their way down the to the middle of the pack and as far as seventh.
There is a lot to look forward to next season in the Big Ten and I expect the conference to be even deeper than it was this past season. We may not have a three way tie for the title, but their could be about seven or eight teams all in a bunch come next March.
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